Tokyo To Suffer Large Earthquake

The chance of a big earthquake hitting the Japanese capital, Tokyo in the next few years is much greater than official predictions suggest, researchers say. The team, from the University of Tokyo, said there was a 75% probability that a magnitude 7 quake would strike the region in the next 4 years. The Japanese Government prediction places a 70% chance of an earthquake of such a high magnitude striking in the next 30 years, however experts have placed the chances of a similar disaster occurring within 30 years are as high as 98%.

Tokyo University researchers made their calculations based on data from the Japan Meteorological Agency, which has recorded a dramatic increase in seismic activity after the magnitude 9 Great East Japan earthquake that crippled the Fukushima nuclear reactor and killed around 23,000 people. The government's 30 year prediction is based on data from before the monstrous, March 11 earthquake. Since the March 11 tragedy, earthquakes in the Tokyo area have increased by 500%.

Researcher, Shinichi Sakai told journalists, "The balance has changed since March 11. [The] quake jerked the fault lines underground in a way that has changed the coastal landscape as well as the sea bed below. It also mounted pressure on nearby sea floors like those beneath Hokkaido and the Kanto region. If the rate of smaller earthquakes persist, it is likely Tokyo will see a big one strike at its doorstep in the near future". Sakai admitted pinpointing the exact location of a big quake is impossible, but researchers are trying to narrow the possibilities.

Although newer buildings in Tokyo are built to withstand powerful earthquakes, a large quake in the city has the potential to cause widespread damage. According to the government, a magnitude 7.3 earthquake would kill about 5,600 people, injure 159,000 and destroy 850,000 buildings. The last time Tokyo was directly hit by a big earthquake was in 1923, when a 7.9 magnitude quake killed more than 100,000 people, many of them in fires.

Days before the report was released, Tatsuo Hirano, the minister in charge of the recovery from the March disaster, said he was confident Tokyo could withstand a powerful quake. "Please rest assured and don't flee Tokyo," he said. Sakai also stated that "Regardless of where it hits, the government, individuals and corporations should prepare for that occurring within the next four years".